How to predict Churn in SaaS

Can you actually predict churn? The answer is, most likely yes. But for each SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) it depends on how it can be spotted. Additionally there are different stages in which you have to focus on different types of triggers.

At Beatchurn we have more than 8 years of experience in Customer Success, both at the frontline as in strategy specialized in Software. As such we have a good idea how we can help you identify churn before it happens.

Let's look at the definitions and how you can potentially spot a forecasted churn before it happens.

What is a churn trigger?

At Beatchurn, we call signs of churn a trigger. A user does something which eventually leads to churn. This can be as simple as not completing the full onboarding, not getting value quick enough, not logging in anymore or creating less orders in the eCommerce app you have created.

Some examples will probably help you identify churn triggers more easily.

Churn Trigger Example 1 - Reduce usage

You have created a successful SaaS in Logistics. Users get value by creating orders, which combine multiple transportation legs. One of the key benefits is that they automated their quotation process and their order management flow.

This customer has been a customer since 2021. In each of the previous years they had growth of orders:

• 2021: 1100 orders a year
• 2022: 1478 orders a year
• 2023: 1890 orders a year
• 2024: 1200 orders a year

All of a sudden, in 2024 they created significantly less orders. On top they have less users. If you look quickly you might think: less users, less orders. But the point is with automation, they should increase number of orders with the same amount of users. Not create less.

There is a perceived likelihood of churn here: the user is using the system less. This can be due to lower business or because they can't maximize the potential with the system.

Churn Trigger Example 2 - Number of logins

You created a Social Media scheduling app with a lot of active users. They get value by logging in, adding their content and posting it to multiple different platforms. In this case the users main benefit is from regularly logging in and adding new content to post on the different platforms.

With this in mind, lets look at two of users number of logins over 6 months:

User 1

• January: 8
• February: 11
• March: 12
• April: 9
• May: 10
• June: 10

User 2

• January: 68
• February: 42
• March: 58
• April: 13
• May: 17
• June: 12

As you can see, user 2 logs in a lot more than user 1. But the key is the deviation in number of logins here. If someone logs in constantly 1 time a month, yes that's not a lot – but it's consistent.

If someone drops from 58 logins to 13 logins – that's a sign. As a customer success rep this means its time to take action. Because chances are the numbers will drop to 0 very soon.

Churn Trigger Example 3 - Incomplete onboarding

Let's say you run a Sales oriented SaaS, aimed to get cold leads to interact with your customers application. To get the maximum amount of benefit of any app, users need to complete some kind of onboarding. Chances are if they don't complete it or skip to the end, they will not get the full value from your application.

An easy to find trigger is an uncompleted onboarding. Make sure to follow up with an uncompleted onboarding – because otherwise they will churn quicker than they became customers.

Churn Trigger Example 4 - Change of key contact

You have a successful SaaS in B2B eCommerce. One of your largest customers announces the departure of their project manager who was responsible for the project to implement your SaaS.

To follow up, you get the contact information of the new project manager, you arrange a meeting with other key contacts and get in touch on how to continue from here.

Everything runs smooth for a month or 3 and then you receive the call – your customer cancels the contract.

But you did everything right?

Maybe.

Why maybe? It depends on what type of key contact is changing. If it's a functional application manager, chances are they are just replacing the contact.

If they are replacing a project manager or implementation consultant, you need to be extra aware. This usually means things are about to change – quickly.

Churn Triggers

While these above don't have to be direct threats to your customer leaving within days, they sure are a red flag and need to be treated as such. Make sure to signal these churn triggers and act on them as soon as you can.

Churn stages

In a Customer onboarding, there are several stages. At Beatchurn we've identified three stages, with each having churn on different reasons:

• Early stage: 0-1 years
• Growth stage: 1-4 years
• Maturity stage: 4 years+*

These stages are indicative and are different per type of SaaS business.

During each of these stages you have to be extra careful about triggers that cause customers to churn. Let's look at each of these stages and their difficulties.

Churn in the Early Stage (0–1 year)

This is where churn risk is highest. Why? Because your customer hasn’t built any habit yet. They’re still trying to decide if your product fits their workflow, team, and business goals.

Common churn triggers in this phase:

• Slow time-to-value: If it takes too long before a user sees their first success, they might move on.
• Lack of activation: Accounts are created, but key actions like integrations, onboarding steps, or content uploads aren’t completed.
• Support silence: If users ask for help and don’t get timely answers, they assume your support will always be slow — and that’s a dealbreaker early on.

In this phase, you need a tight grip on onboarding success. Build a proactive approach: guide users through activation, follow up when activity drops, and celebrate small wins with them. Make sure your CSM or onboarding playbooks are in overdrive here.

Churn in the Growth Stage (1–4 years)

If you’ve made it past year one, well done. But don’t relax yet. The growth stage is where usage expands, more departments get involved, and the stakes grow. With that also come new risks.

Typical churn triggers in this phase:

• Value plateau: The customer got their initial win, but now they're not seeing anything new. You’re not expanding use cases, and they’re starting to ask, “What’s next?”
• Feature mismatch: As they grow, their needs become more complex — and they might start comparing your tool to competitors with broader or different functionality.
• Internal team changes: New decision makers arrive and want to cut costs or centralize tooling — and your software is now “under review.”

In the growth phase, your role shifts from onboarding to expansion. It’s all about showing added value, surfacing new use cases, and proving ROI. Don’t assume satisfaction — actively maintain it.

Churn in the Maturity Stage (4+ years)

You’d think customers that stick around this long are forever loyal. But mature accounts can be silent churners. They’ve already paid you a lot — which also means they now want to optimize their stack. You’re on the chopping block if they think you’ve become a “nice to have.”

Churn triggers here:

• Budget review cycles: Finance starts asking: “Why are we still paying this?”
• Outdated adoption: The team isn’t using new features. They’re stuck in old workflows while your product has evolved.
• Executive sponsorship fades: The original champion is long gone, and no one else is fighting to keep you in.

This is where customer success becomes lifecycle success. Run quarterly business reviews, ensure usage is still aligned with business goals, and re-educate long-time users on what’s new. Loyalty doesn’t mean immunity.

Conclusion: You Can Predict Churn — If You Know Where to Look

Churn isn’t just a number at the end of the quarter — it’s a signal that something was missed earlier. Whether it’s a dip in usage, a skipped onboarding, or a subtle change in account ownership, the signs are there. You just need the right system to surface them, and the right approach to act on them before it’s too late.

That’s exactly what we built Beatchurn for.

At Beatchurn, we help SaaS companies like yours identify early churn triggers, segment users by lifecycle stage, and respond with tailored actions — all before the customer actually leaves. We combine automation with customer success expertise, helping your team focus on the right accounts at the right time. No more flying blind. No more missed signs.

With Beatchurn:

• You spot churn before it happens
• You engage users when it matters most
• You reduce churn and increase net revenue retention

If churn is keeping you up at night — or worse, sneaking up on you when you least expect it — it’s time to make it predictable and preventable.